Friday, 12 November 2010

Pizza Hut and the decline of western civilisation





Two days ago, I went to Pizza Hut, Kirkcaldy for coffee and a brief business meeting followed by lunch. Coffee was off - machine broken - no kettle - but the staff were very pleasant and the pizza was fine. In the vestibule of the restaurant, I was struck by a picture on the wall of the 1000th Pizza Hut, opened in 1972.

What this shows is genuine architectural composition, the branding in the form of a distinctive roof shape is bold without being gaudy or brash, and the regular pattern of exposed concrete panels and glass is pleasing and understated. All in all a very satisfactory piece of work, likely to stand the test of time.

What, in contrast, was I sitting in?......... This:


No unity of thought, a mixture of shapes, a curved roof in response to current fashion, but no composition...no idea.

If an organisation that has been a commercial success for forty years cannot learn from and improve upon previous achievement, but instead feels content with the lowest common denominator in the design of their buildings, what does it say about the cultural ambition of our day? It seems that pride in commercial achievement is a thing of the past. The role in building an organisation was once respected. The physical building was an expression of that pride in achievement, confidence in the future and contribution to the society, community and nation. The current lack of quality in building illustrates other ideas; short term concerns, self doubt, quick money, and a surrender of higher ideals.

Pizza hut, like so much in our society, illustrates a sad, deep-seated cultural and intellectual decline.

So my question to Pizza Hut is...Why isn't it better?

Wednesday, 21 July 2010

Beauty and the Beast....In Norwich

Whilst strolling around the city of Norwich, heading for the Bus to the Airport, I happened upon two buildings that both, in their different ways, made an impression.


































The first is an exquisite arts and crafts arcade, the delicate glazed ceramics, structural arches, stained glass, light fittings and ceramic decoration to the columns are all clearly the work of a single designer. This building has a level of detail, thoroughness and comprehensive approach never contemplated in contemporary shopping-mall design.


The second was an entrance lift to Norwich Castle, An unlovable glass tank perched on top of the mott, with the lift cut into the historic earthwork. The flat glass roof of this allowed a first-class view of the assembled dirt on top. The early assault by vandals is surely a sign that architectural criticism is alive in east anglia







































































The Theory of the Firm

“So far as [the spirit of individual liberty} is really lacking, the first task must be to waken it; and this a regime of freedom will do but a system of regimentation will not,” (F.A. Hayek)


It is surprising how limited, sporadic and incomplete the economic analysis of “The firm” has been. In fact, despite the central role played in economic development by firms, no really satisfactory theory has ever been developed to explain their existence, extent, functioning and internal structure. Correspondingly, no adequate model exists to explain the best relationship between the individual and the firm. The result is that this vital relationship often degenerates into a simple exchange of a fixed income for a fixed period of, often reluctant, obedience to hierarchy. The unsatisfactory result is camouflaged by lip service paid to largely mythical team spirit and company objectives. The few employees who are not affected by this malaise are, by contrast highly effective and end up shouldering the majority of the real burden while others look on, either disbelieving or disinterested. Those few hardy souls only sometimes get recognition, and cannot get appropriately rewarded due to the dead weight of the larger number who are, sometimes literally, only here for the beer. The cumulative effect is a split between the effective and under-appreciated minority, the idle majority with their sense of entitlement and overstretched managers trying to cope with resulting problems of inefficiency, economic distress and chronically poor quality.

My conclusion is that the basic relationships underpinning the conventional firm are un-workable and need to be rethought. In the words of Karl Popper from The Logic of Scientific Discovery “If by chance they find themselves unable to accept any of the existing creeds, all they can do is to begin afresh from the beginning”

Thus the questions we are faced with are:

What theories of the firm are in current use?

Do these need to be changed or developed to more fully define what a firm actually IS

How the relationship between the individual and the firm should be changed to free the former from the stultifying effects of the later and the later from the economic drain of the former.

The first real effort at defining the reason why firms exist, or more accurately the reason they develop to their current size and structure, was developed by Professor Coase in the 1930’s. This saw the firm as a long-term construct between formerly independent input owners in which they are governed by an entrepreneur. Prof Coase used the concept of transaction cost, the cost of using the market mechanism to postulate an explanation for why firm grow to a certain size, conducting some work in a vertically integrated manner and going to the external market for other operations. This work lay until the 1970’s before Williamson and others developed the idea further. Although perhaps shedding some light on matters this failed to explain why and under what circumstance the entrepreneur and formerly independent workers would choose to do this and offered no workable means of calculating transaction costs. It does highlight the key role of the entrepreneur but offers little more of use in this current search.

In recent years, economists of the Austrian school have started to examine this issue, which, although touched upon indirectly be the great figures or Austrian economics had hitherto not received any detailed attention. Ioanides suggested that “The firm is a planned social order within which an ongoing process of entrepreneurial discovery is organised.” This highlights two important and potentially conflicting points, firstly that the presence of a firm implies some degree of central planning and organisation and secondly that the firm as a whole is engaged in entrepreneurial activity. This implies that central planning must be limited if the creation of new ideas and opportunities is not to be stifled.

Other Austrian school adherents have offered further insights. Nelson et al view that “The firm is a repository of collective, tacit knowledge and capacities embodied in firm-specific routines, evolved over time in a competitive environment”. This knowledge based view also has some merit, particularly for the design professions where, ultimately, it is our knowledge and ability that we sell. The more lonely existence of the sole practitioner, removed from the casual but creative interaction with other like-minded people on a daily basis is unlikely to develop as broad a knowledge base, and as profound an understanding of his chosen craft or skill. Hence the creative and learning advantages definitely constitute one of the roles of the firm. Also, as Alfred North Whitehead observed, “Civilisation advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them. Operations of thought are like cavalry charges in a battle; they are strictly limited in number, they require fresh horses, and they must only be made at decisive moments”. Thus the development of knowledge that can be easily and quickly applied is a significant asset. Potentially a firm can assemble this intellectual capital much more rapidly than an individual and allow more to share from the benefits. The development of this intellectual capital is essentially a gradual process, learning from experience, as Karl Popper put it in Conjectures and Refutations “It is part of my thesis that all our knowledge grows only through correcting our mistakes”. The firm, by being a repository of such knowledge and experience, assembles and transmits a pool of value more widely and efficiently than does an informal network.

Adelstein observed “Firms emerge because the entrepreneur needs the close cooperation of others over time to realise his vision” This is clearly more readily achieved within a firm of people of varied skills and knowledge but with compatible objectives that in a series of impermanent, ad-hoc relationships. Thus, the mutual advantages of cooperation also appear to be a reason firms are preferable to networks of individuals.

One further advantage of a firm is the sharing of risk, or more broadly using the combined resources to cope with uncertainty. The firm helps this by providing further viewpoints and the benefits of shared experience. By building in checking procedures, and peer review processes, an individual can be encouraged to explore new ideas with uncertainty being reduced and the potential losses that may result shared by a larger financial grouping.

In the area of learning, it ultimately is the individual who must take responsibility for his own development. However the firm can create an atmosphere of erudition, a sharing of insight and promote a love of learning. This has, potentially benefits to all those involved in the venture , “For it is in the process of learning and in the effects of having learned something new, that man enjoys the gift of his intelligence” (F. A. Hayek). However, firms rarely encourage such learning, concentrating on more limited training for the advancement of short term goals. This is ultimately self limiting. Again Hayek said it well in The Constitution of Liberty:”It is important to recognise that we are not educating people for a free society if we train technicians who expect to be “used”, who are incapable of finding their own niche themselves, and who regard it as someone else’s problem to ensure the appropriate use of their ability or skill.” Hence the education must be freed from central control, and instead must be the shared activity of independently minded persons. This independence of mind is a rare thing in our present culture and gets to the heart of what is wrong with many current firms. Again quoting Hayek’s Constitution of liberty: “For the independent there can be no sharp distinction between his private and his business life, as it is for the employed who has sold part of his time for a fixed income. While for the employed, work is largely a matter of fitting himself into a given framework during a certain number of hours, for the independent, it is a question of shaping and reshaping a plan of life, finding solutions for ever new problems. It is therefore only by eliminating the salary-for-time basis of employment can people be freed from the technician mentality and have access to the wider human potential

If the firm is therefore to promote intellectual development for economic ends, this means it must encourage sharing and development of effectual personal knowledge, promote critical thinking (problem solving) ability, encourage challenges to the status quo by developing ideas of how things can be better done, and provide a broad perspective by avoiding narrow specialism.

Deming in his development of total quality management highlighted the lack of constancy of purpose as a common failure in contemporary management practice. In this he correctly identified the need for an entrepreneur or a firm to strive often for a long time before reaching the breakthrough point. How many successful individuals has said something along the lines of “It took me twenty years to become an overnight success” Taleb in The Black Swan put it thus: “Many people labour in life under the impression that they are doing something right, yet they might not show solid results for a long time. They need the capacity for continuously adjourned gratification, to survive a steady diet of peer cruelty, without becoming demoralised. They look like idiots...” For a firm to show this degree of constancy of purpose it must be well led by a determined management team, with few personnel changes. There must also be a broad dissemmination of just what the objectives are; these must be understood by all those involved. This is vital if the natural concentration on short term goals (without which longer term ones cannot be met) is not to choke the progress of the firm and result in mere survival being the only objective.

So to draw these ideas together, the firm must be

Centrally planned only in so far as the right culture and beliefs are fostered

Dedicated to entrepreneurial discovery

A centre of learning and sharing of knowledge

A repository of experience and tacit understanding

An organisation with a vision of longer term objectives which are pursued with constant diligence


On a more personal note:

For our firm, Alexander Scott, the longer term goal is a cementing of the fractured construction industry, riven as it is with petty squabbles, demarcation disputes and professional jealousies. Speaking of a time before it was thus, LTC Rolt, when describing the works of Thomas Telford observed “They were not the products of dead formulae and cold calculation, but of a newly won technical mastery, fired by artistic imagination and burning enthusiasm; they were chapters in a unique and enthralling adventure story which kindled the imaginations of engineer and artist alike. To call such engineering achievements great works of art, as Telford’s contemporaries did, seems to us merely an exaggeration. Yet the tribute was sincere and meant exactly what it said. No arbitrary distinctions could be drawn while science and art enjoyed their, all too brief, love match in the mind.” The sterility of much current engineering design is due to the fact we have developed a much narrower definition of what it means to design and have forgotten the fact Murray N Rothbard pointed out in Ethics of Liberty, that “Behind every produced good, behind every man-made transformation of natural resources is an idea directing the effort, a manifestation of man’s spirit.

In our particular case, seeking creativity as a primary goal, needing both cooperation and individual brilliance and having central planning as an essential but not suffocating element, I find the model that should be followed is perhaps best summed up by the Orchestra. In this organisation, individuals of talent and ability, coordinated in an efficient manner with a minimum of management, rely mostly on shared understanding of the “rules” of music. Thus is achieved mostly self-managed execution of often complex tasks. The results are greater works than the individuals could aim for as soloists. And as for the creative element.... well we aim not to be just any orchestra....we aim to be the design equivalent of The Duke Ellington Orchestra.

And therefore, to finish I’d just like to say dear reader...

You are very beautiful and we love you madly.

Wednesday, 7 July 2010

Risk and uncertainty in design and management

What is uncertainty and how should it be handled in the sister professions of design and management?

The HSE use the term "risk" and legislation requires that risks be assessed. Little usable guidance is available on how this should be achieved, however, and the published guidance concentrates on the simple, the obvious and the ridiculous, shedding little light on how risk assessment should operate in practice in complex, rapidly moving design or management environments.

The reason may be that, while the HSE work with accidents and their human and legal consequences, they understand neither design nor management. These skills, when rightly understood, involve a common process of problem solving (or critical thinking), which may be summarised as follows:

1. Identify and understand the problem, establishing criteria for a successful solution.
2. Generate many (all?) possible solutions
3. Assess these options against the previously established criteria
4. Select the optimum solution
5. Take action to put he solution into effect.

The real process may be linear or cyclical, involving several iterations with each interim solution revealing more about the problem and providing a better starting point for subsequent attempts.

The types of risk involved follow from this process and are:

1. Envisioning risk - solving the wrong problem
2. Ideation risk - developing poor alternatives
3. Evaluation risk - making the wrong choice
4. Execution risk - failure to implement the decision

Therefore proper control of risk, in both design and management, commences with the adoption of the correct problem solving strategy and continues with assessment of the various types of risk every time a decision is made. Also, whereas the HSE concentrates on health and safety risks as their name suggests, but risks of all types must be considered, that includes technical, financial, contractual, business and environmental hazards (ask BP about several of those).

We next come to a problem of definition; according to most dictionary definitions, risk and uncertainty or synonyms. However, a distinction drawn in the sphere of economics may be helpful here:

Risk is present when future events occur with measurable probability

Uncertainty is present when the likelihood of future events is incalculable or indefinite

(Ref Frank H Knight, Risk Uncertainty and Profit, 1921)

Thus risk assessment strictly refers to cases where probabilities can be quantified. In cases such as this, the risk can also be insured. It is what Donald Rumsfeld might have called "Known unknowns, things we know we don't know" Where uncertainty is the correct term, no quantified risk can be meaningful. Here perhaps are Mr Rumsfeld's "Unknown unknowns, things we don't know we don't know"

Only risks with measurable probabilities can be assessed in a numerical manner (giving an financial costs for the risk, which can be compared to the cost of an improvement). In design and management, this is the exception. Mostly we deal with uncertainty. The common practice is to get around this by assessing, rather arbitrarily, the probability and the consequences as low/medium/high based on the designer's/manager's subjective judgement. This simply obscures the true nature of the problem and puts the moment of forming a judgement off for a few minutes. More direct and helpful is to classify uncertainty as one of the following cases:


R1 Insignificant - Action None

R2 Significant but common -that is addressed by good standard practice
In construction it would be appropriate to rely on standard specifications for this category

R3 Significant and unusual, specific guidance on control of risk/uncertainty is required by operatives executing instructions.
In construction it would be appropriate to add specific instructions/guidance to drawings in addition to issuing full specifications, for example a detailed sequence of work statement might be added to drawings showing alterations to a building's structure.


R4 Unacceptable - Re-plan or redesign in part or in whole


R5 Extreme - Eliminate at source by redesign / abandon or rethink plans

Thus the pretense of a quasi-scientific assessment is dropped and uncertainty handled, as it must be, by judgement as to what is a reasonable response.

In forming this judgement, the manager or designer must educate himself by the study of hazards, accidents, failures, disasters, legal requirements and good practice, so as to be capable of sound assessment of new cases. Furthermore, the attention of several members of a diverse design or management team to risk and uncertainty issues may improve significantly the quality of the judgements formed - two (or more) heads are better than one.

In summary risk and uncertainty are related but not identical terms. The ability to make secure decisions in an environment of uncertainty is a key skill for both designers and managers. The limited approach the HSE brings to this subject, whilst undoubtedly better than the scant attention it previously received, is far from optimal. By making risk and uncertainty considerations integral to their decision making process, both managers and designers can improve their effectiveness, save money and perhaps lives.

Tuesday, 25 May 2010

Value-less university education

Exactly what is the value of a University Education? Why are plumbers on 40 grand and accounts graduates on 15? Could it be that a University education is actually adding little true value?

A recent meeting of the Institution of Structural Engineers in Edinburgh, comprised a talk by Peter Pallet on the subject of temporary works - scaffold, shoring.formwork etc, an oft neglected, expensive and failure-prone element of the construction industry. In response to my question about the quality of the people involved in the design and supervision process, Peter moved onto the subject of Graduate Engineers. He came up with the memorable summary that

"they know nothing about engineering..as far as I can tell they do nothing at University but drinking and wenching"

Now students, particularly those in engineering, medicine and a few other practical professions are worked hard, how can they be so unimpressive after four or five years of this? It is because Mr Pallet is correct; what they spend their time on has little relevance to the real world.

My experience after many years of training, coaching, and supervising the finest products of our Universities is, if anything, more concerning. For the graduates suffer from a common malaise:

  • They are poorly versed in the fundamentals, with a surface veneer of knowledge but no deep understanding
  • They are utterly lacking in the basic skills of their profession
  • They are virtually incapable of independent critical thought or problem solving
  • They are economically illiterate.
  • They are often close to being functionally illiterate.

How to spot this problem - watch the questions an individual asks when faced with a new challenge. They fall into three categories:

  1. No questions - no mental activity at all. Only option is rapid retraining as Tea-boy, or perhaps head of the IMF
  2. "Tell me what to do", usually followed by "tell me what I did wrong". Most common category. A technician mentality has developed. An inability to reason is made terminal by a reluctance to take responsibility. Not suitable for creative work, recommend Macdonalds burger flipping as a career path.
  3. Some original thought resulting in a perceptive question. Really rare, fast-track to the top.

Now the question is WHY is it so bad. Accident or design?

Lets look at the writing of the most influential educator of the 20th C - John Dewey

"Children who know how to think for themselves spoil the harmony of the collective society which is coming, where everyone is interdependent."

So there you have it, Our education system has been molded by those who favour a collective (that is are coercive, totalitarian) society to prevent independent thought.

Job done!